Benfica 5-0 Arouca – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Benfica at 60% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Arouca encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Benfica welcome Arouca to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 12 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Benfica — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Benfica's home record over their last 10 home games: 10W 0D 0L (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Benfica are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Arouca have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Arouca have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Benfica) versus 1.80 (Arouca). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Benfica: 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Arouca, with 0 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Jan 2024, ended Benfica 3–0 Arouca — a Benfica win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Benfica and goals — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Benfica in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

Arouca in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 39% versus Arouca 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 62% | Arouca 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.99 xG and Arouca 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.527 / defence 0.640 | Arouca attack 1.252 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.267. Benfica carry an above-average attack rating of 1.527 — their 1.99 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Arouca have an above-average attack rating of 1.252, which lifts their away xG to 1.01. Benfica have a tight defence (rating 0.640), which is pulling Arouca's projected output down. Data: built from Benfica's last 66 games and Arouca's last 66.

Result probabilities: Benfica 60% | Draw 21% | Arouca 19%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.66 | Draw 4.70 | Arouca 5.36. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Benfica 5 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Benfica's last 10 home games and Arouca's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Benfica 40% (last 10 home games) | Arouca 70% (last 10 away games).

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