Casa Pia 0-1 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Moreirense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Casa Pia host Moreirense at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Casa Pia's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Moreirense — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Moreirense away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Casa Pia at 1.20 PPG versus Moreirense's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Casa Pia have won 1, Moreirense 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2024, ended 4–1 with Casa Pia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Casa Pia in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Moreirense in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 44% versus Moreirense 28%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 47% | Moreirense 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.95 xG and Moreirense 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.701 / defence 0.888 | Moreirense attack 0.701 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.267. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Casa Pia games / 32 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 38% | Draw 33% | Moreirense 29%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Moreirense 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Moreirense's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Casa Pia at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Casa Pia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 40% | Moreirense 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 38% | Draw 33% | Moreirense 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Casa Pia 0.95 / Moreirense 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.701 / def 0.888 | Moreirense attack 0.701 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Moreirense xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Moreirense kick off?
Casa Pia vs Moreirense kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Casa Pia 0 - 1 Moreirense.
Where is Casa Pia vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Moreirense part of?
Casa Pia vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 38% chance of winning, Moreirense a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Casa Pia and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Moreirense?
Record (1 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 0 | Moreirense 0W.
What form are Casa Pia and Moreirense in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Moreirense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Casa Pia's attack rating (0.70) and Moreirense's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Moreirense's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
38%
2.65
33%
2.99
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
1.73
0.79
Moreirense xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 13.9 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.79 for Moreirense, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 9W 8D 15L from 32 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Moreirense, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 11L across 32 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Moreirense by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Casa Pia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 3W 5D 8L from 16 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Moreirense's away record stands at 7W 3D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Moreirense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.03 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Moreirense in 28%.
Defensively: Moreirense in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Current Season
Moreirense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 9W 8D 15L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 14W 7D 11L in their last 32 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Moreirense away?
Moreirense's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 0.88 PPG; Moreirense away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Moreirense in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jan 2024, when Casa Pia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Casa Pia's record when hosting Moreirense specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Casa Pia
1
Draws
3
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Moreirense?
From 6 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 2, Moreirense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Casa Pia 1-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Moreirense?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Moreirense see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Casa Pia 38% BTTS, Moreirense 19%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Casa Pia and 38% for Moreirense.
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Moreirense in 44%; Casa Pia have failed to score in 50% of games; Moreirense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Moreirense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 19% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Casa Pia's recent games and 38% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Moreirense defy the odds to beat Casa Pia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat Casa Pia 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 0.95 xG and Moreirense 0.79 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.70 / defence 0.89 against Moreirense attack 0.70 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 38% | Draw 33% | Moreirense 29%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Moreirense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 47%, Moreirense 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Moreirense's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Moreirense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.