Famalicao 2-0 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Famalicao face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Famalicao welcome Benfica to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga (matchday 32). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 21:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Famalicao — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Famalicao have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Benfica have recorded 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Benfica's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form points away from home here. Benfica's 2.40 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Famalicao's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Benfica have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Famalicao.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Dec 2023, ended Famalicao 0–3 Benfica — a Benfica win.
Benfica have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Famalicao in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Benfica in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 51% versus Benfica 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 49% | Benfica 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Famalicao surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Benfica have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.19 xG and Benfica 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.893 / defence 1.066 | Benfica attack 1.231 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.291. Benfica have an above-average attack rating of 1.231, which lifts their away xG to 1.69. Data: built from Famalicao's last 65 games and Benfica's last 65.
Result probabilities: Famalicao 27% | Draw 24% | Benfica 49%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 3.75 | Draw 4.09 | Benfica 2.05. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Famalicao's last 10 home games and Benfica's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Famalicao 70% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 32 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 27% | Draw 24% | Benfica 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Famalicao 1.19 / Benfica 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.893 / def 1.066 | Benfica attack 1.231 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Benfica (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Benfica xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Famalicao vs Benfica FAQs
What time does Famalicao vs Benfica kick off?
Famalicao vs Benfica kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Benfica?
Famalicao 2 - 0 Benfica.
Where is Famalicao vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Benfica part of?
Famalicao vs Benfica is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 32) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 27% chance of winning, Benfica a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Famalicao and Benfica will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Famalicao vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.89) and Benfica's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Famalicao's last 65 games and Benfica's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
27%
3.75
24%
4.09
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.88
1.69
Benfica xG
3.75
27%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
5%
20.37
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Famalicao vs Benfica Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.69 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 21W 17D 27L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Benfica's form line: 52W 7D 6L from 65 games, 2.51 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.28 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Famalicao.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 32 home games (14W 7D 11L).
On the road, Benfica have gone 23W 4D 5L from their last 32 away games — 2.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.35 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Current Season
Benfica
Current Season
Famalicao (Home) vs Benfica (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Famalicao
Current Season
Benfica
Current Season
❓ Famalicao vs Benfica Form FAQs
What form are Famalicao and Benfica in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 21W 17D 27L in their last 65 games (1.23 PPG), while Benfica have gone 52W 7D 6L in their last 65 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.53 PPG; Benfica away: 2.28 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Benfica in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Jan 2025, when Benfica won Benfica 4-0 Famalicao.
Famalicao's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Famalicao
2
Draws
6
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Famalicao vs Benfica H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Benfica?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Famalicao have won 2, Benfica have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Benfica last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Famalicao 2-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 50%, Benfica 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Famalicao) and 56% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Benfica in 56%; Famalicao have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Famalicao vs Benfica Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Famalicao and Benfica matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Famalicao's recent matches and 34% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Famalicao and Benfica matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Famalicao's recent games and 56% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Benfica matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Famalicao's recent matches and 66% of Benfica's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Benfica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Benfica 2-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.19 xG and Benfica 1.69 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Benfica landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against Benfica attack 1.23 / defence 0.92, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 27% | Draw 24% | Benfica 49%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Famalicao win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 49%, Benfica 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Benfica's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Famalicao winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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