Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa Prediction & Preview

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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wisla Krakow face Legia Warszawa.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Legia Warszawa travel to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to take on Wisla Krakow in Ekstraklasa (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2027 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Wisla Krakow's home record over their last 7 home games: 7W 0D 0L (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Legia Warszawa stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Krakow 1.80 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 71% of Wisla Krakow's games and 60% of Legia Warszawa's (from Wisla Krakow's last 7 home games and Legia Warszawa's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Wisla Krakow, 2 for Legia Warszawa and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Oct 2026, ended Wisla Krakow 0–2 Legia Warszawa — a Legia Warszawa win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).

Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 71% and Legia Warszawa 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 64% | Legia Warszawa 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.20 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 1.010 / defence 0.864 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.999 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.304. Legia Warszawa bring a tight defence (rating 0.744, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Wisla Krakow's projected output down. Data: built from Wisla Krakow's last 14 games and Legia Warszawa's last 48.

Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 36% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 32%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.81 | Draw 3.09 | Legia Warszawa 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Wisla Krakow as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Wisla Krakow 71% (last 7 home games) | Legia Warszawa 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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