Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Jagiellonia at Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Jagiellonia — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Legia Warszawa have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Jagiellonia 2, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 62% and Jagiellonia 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 44% | Jagiellonia 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.96 xG and Jagiellonia 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.310 / defence 0.813 | Jagiellonia attack 1.364 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.280. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Legia Warszawa games / 39 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 47% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 25%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Jagiellonia 4.00. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Jagiellonia 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 47% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.96 / Jagiellonia 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.310 / def 0.813 | Jagiellonia attack 1.364 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Jagiellonia xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 47% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
Record (10 meetings): Legia Warszawa 3W | Draws 5 | Jagiellonia 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.62
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.38
1.42
Jagiellonia xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
14%
7.08
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
4%
28.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.42 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 15W 15D 9L from 39 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 10L across 39 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.54 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 10W 6D 3L from 19 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 7W 8D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.67 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 15W 15D 9L in their last 39 games (1.54 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 18W 11D 10L in their last 39 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Jagiellonia away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.89 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when Legia Warszawa won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
5
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 2-2 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 53%, Jagiellonia 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Legia Warszawa) and 58% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Legia Warszawa's games and 63% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 58% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.