Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Motor Lublin at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Radomiak Radom make the trip to Motor Lublin Arena to face Motor Lublin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Motor Lublin (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Motor Lublin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Motor Lublin's home record at Motor Lublin Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Radomiak Radom have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Motor Lublin against 1.10 for Radomiak Radom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Motor Lublin lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Motor Lublin half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Motor Lublin 60% and Radomiak Radom 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 50% | Radomiak Radom 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.63 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 0.778 / defence 0.978 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.829 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.303. Motor Lublin's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Motor Lublin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Motor Lublin games / 40 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 48% | Draw 31% | Radomiak Radom 22%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Radomiak Radom 4.55. Motor Lublin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Motor Lublin as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Motor Lublin 40% | Radomiak Radom 50%.

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