Widzew Łódź 1-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Widzew Łódź face Lech Poznan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Widzew Łódź welcome Lech Poznan to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 19 May 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Widzew Łódź — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Lech Poznan have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Lech Poznan's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Widzew Łódź at 1.40 PPG versus Lech Poznan's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Widzew Łódź, 2 for Lech Poznan and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Widzew Łódź 3–1 Lech Poznan — a Widzew Łódź win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 53% versus Lech Poznan 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Lech Poznan 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.35 xG and Lech Poznan 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.884 / defence 1.112 | Lech Poznan attack 0.944 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.113. Data: built from Widzew Łódź's last 66 games and Lech Poznan's last 66.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 39% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 30%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.55 | Draw 3.29 | Lech Poznan 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Widzew Łódź 60% (last 10 home games) | Lech Poznan 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 39% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Widzew Łódź 1.35 / Lech Poznan 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.884 / def 1.112 | Lech Poznan attack 0.944 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Lech Poznan xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan FAQs
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 33) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 39% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.88x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Widzew Łódź's last 66 games and Lech Poznan's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.29
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.52
1.17
Lech Poznan xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
8%
12.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.17 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 23W 14D 29L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 31W 20D 15L from 66 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Widzew Łódź.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 33 home games (14W 3D 16L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 13W 14D 6L from their last 33 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.45 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
Widzew Łódź (Home) vs Lech Poznan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan Form FAQs
What form are Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 23W 14D 29L in their last 66 games (1.26 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 31W 20D 15L in their last 66 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.36 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Jan 2025, when Lech Poznan won Lech Poznan 4-1 Widzew Łódź.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Widzew Łódź 2-3 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 48%, Lech Poznan 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Widzew Łódź) and 54% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Lech Poznan in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 58% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 54% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 70% of Lech Poznan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 33, as Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.35 xG and Lech Poznan 1.17 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.88 / defence 1.11 against Lech Poznan attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 39% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 30%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 50%, Lech Poznan 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.