Radomiak Radom 1-3 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion Radomiaka to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 May 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadion Radomiaka — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Widzew Łódź are 0.50 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Radomiak Radom have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Widzew Łódź managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 3–0 with Radomiak Radom winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Radomiak Radom and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 42% versus Widzew Łódź 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 45% | Widzew Łódź 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.26 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.863 / defence 1.400 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.124 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.113. Data: 67 Radomiak Radom games / 67 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 47%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Widzew Łódź 2.13. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Radomiak Radom dominate the H2H record, yet Widzew Łódź are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 50% | Widzew Łódź 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.26 / Widzew Łódź 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.863 / def 1.400 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.124 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Widzew Łódź xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 3 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 26% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
Record (3 meetings): Radomiak Radom 3W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.86x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.12x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
26%
3.86
27%
3.71
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.02
1.75
Widzew Łódź xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
17%
5.77
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
4%
22.29
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.75 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 22W 16D 29L from 67 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 29L across 67 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.25 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 9W 9D 15L from 33 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 9W 11D 13L across 33 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.19 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 22W 16D 29L in their last 67 games (1.22 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 23W 15D 29L in their last 67 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Widzew Łódź's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.09 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won 0-3 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Radomiak Radom 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 46%, Widzew Łódź 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Radomiak Radom) and 46% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 58% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 46% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Radomiak Radom 1-3 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.26 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.75 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Widzew Łódź outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.86 / defence 1.40 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.12 / defence 0.99, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 47%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 45%, Widzew Łódź 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.22 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.