Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host ŁKS Łódź at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 20 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, ŁKS Łódź have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, ŁKS Łódź have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Zaglebie Lubin carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zaglebie Lubin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, ŁKS Łódź in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, ŁKS Łódź 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
ŁKS Łódź in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 53% versus ŁKS Łódź 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 47% | ŁKS Łódź 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.95 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.824 / defence 0.972 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.782 / defence 1.596. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.112. ŁKS Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.596 — this is suppressing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Zaglebie Lubin games / 32 ŁKS Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 62% | Draw 24% | ŁKS Łódź 14%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | ŁKS Łódź 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Zaglebie Lubin (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | ŁKS Łódź 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 62% | Draw 24% | ŁKS Łódź 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.95 / ŁKS Łódź 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.824 / def 0.972 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.782 / def 1.596 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.84
ŁKS Łódź xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 20 May 2024 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Zaglebie Lubin 2 - 1 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 62% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 0 | ŁKS Łódź 0W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.82) and ŁKS Łódź's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ŁKS Łódź's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.10
14%
7.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.79
0.84
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
7.18
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
14%
7.03
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
2%
50.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.84 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 12W 8D 12L from 32 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
ŁKS Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 21L across 32 games — 0.66 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zaglebie Lubin by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ŁKS Łódź heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 6W 5D 5L from 16 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ŁKS Łódź's away record stands at 1W 1D 14L across 16 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ŁKS Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.94 scored and 2.22 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
ŁKS Łódź
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 12W 8D 12L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 5W 6D 21L in their last 32 (0.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or ŁKS Łódź away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.44 PPG; ŁKS Łódź away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
0
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2024, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 ŁKS Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 56%, ŁKS Łódź 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 69% (ŁKS Łódź).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; ŁKS Łódź in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play ŁKS Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 44% of ŁKS Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 69% of ŁKS Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, ŁKS Łódź in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out ŁKS Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat ŁKS Łódź 2-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.95 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.84 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.78 / defence 1.60, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 62% | Draw 24% | ŁKS Łódź 14%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 47%, ŁKS Łódź 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.