Raków Częstochowa 2-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

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Match Analysis

Raków Częstochowa host Radomiak Radom at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 12 April 2025 at 20:15 UK time.

Form Guide

Raków Częstochowa — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Radomiak Radom have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Raków Częstochowa at 2.10 PPG versus Radomiak Radom's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Raków Częstochowa: 4 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Radomiak Radom, with 2 draws.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Radomiak Radom — a Raków Częstochowa win.

The head-to-head data gives Raków Częstochowa an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Patterns

Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 49% versus Radomiak Radom 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 41% | Radomiak Radom 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.77 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.071 / defence 0.980 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.142 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.183. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 61 games and Radomiak Radom's last 61.

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 23% | Radomiak Radom 29%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.09 | Draw 4.29 | Radomiak Radom 3.47. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.77 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Raków Częstochowa 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Raków Częstochowa's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 60% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 50% (last 10 away games).

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