Radomiak Radom 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Radomiak Radom welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Radomiaka in Ekstraklasa (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 5 April 2025 at 14:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Radomiak Radom have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Radomiak Radom, 4 for Zaglebie Lubin and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Radomiak Radom 0–1 Zaglebie Lubin — a Zaglebie Lubin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 55% versus Zaglebie Lubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 55% | Zaglebie Lubin 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.53 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.999 / defence 0.980 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.834 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.179. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 60 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 60.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 50% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.98 | Draw 3.88 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.19. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 70% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 14:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 50% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Radomiak Radom 1.53 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.999 / def 0.980 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.834 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Zaglebie Lubin xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 14:45 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 27) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 50% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 60 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
50%
1.98
26%
3.88
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.49
0.96
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
19.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.96 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 12D 28L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.17 PPG from 60 outings (19W 13D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.20 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 9W 9D 12L across their last 30 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 6D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 20W 12D 28L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 13D 28L in their last 60 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.20 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 May 2022, when Zaglebie Lubin won Radomiak Radom 1-6 Zaglebie Lubin.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
6
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Radomiak Radom 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 67%, Zaglebie Lubin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Radomiak Radom) and 47% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Radomiak Radom's games and 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 47% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 87% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Radomiak Radom 0-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.53 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.96 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 50% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 55%, Zaglebie Lubin 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.20 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.