Cracovia Krakow 2-4 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cracovia Krakow face Slask Wroclaw.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Slask Wroclaw at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 12 April 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cracovia Krakow at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Slask Wroclaw stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cracovia Krakow 1.20 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Slask Wroclaw 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Cracovia Krakow 4–2 Slask Wroclaw — a Cracovia Krakow win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 52%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 61% versus Slask Wroclaw 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 46% | Slask Wroclaw 48%). Note also that Slask Wroclaw surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Cracovia Krakow recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 52% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.83 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.109 / defence 1.155 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.042 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.157. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 61 games and Slask Wroclaw's last 61.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 48% | Draw 23% | Slask Wroclaw 29%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.09 | Draw 4.39 | Slask Wroclaw 3.41. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Slask Wroclaw's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 80% (last 10 home games) | Slask Wroclaw 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 48% | Draw 23% | Slask Wroclaw 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.83 / Slask Wroclaw 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.109 / def 1.155 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.042 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Slask Wroclaw xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw FAQs
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 4 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 28) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 48% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.11x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cracovia Krakow's last 61 games and Slask Wroclaw's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
48%
2.09
23%
4.39
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.23
1.39
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
5%
21.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.39 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 19W 24D 18L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 22W 19D 20L from 61 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.33 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.23 PPG from their last 30 home games (8W 13D 9L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 10W 9D 11L from their last 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.30 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Cracovia Krakow (Home) vs Slask Wroclaw (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw Form FAQs
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 19W 24D 18L in their last 61 games (1.33 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 22W 19D 20L in their last 61 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Slask Wroclaw's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.23 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from August 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 May 2024, when Slask Wroclaw won Slask Wroclaw 4-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
4
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 58% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 67%, Slask Wroclaw 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Cracovia Krakow) and 47% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 50% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 47% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 67% of Slask Wroclaw's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slask Wroclaw cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Cracovia Krakow 2-4 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.83 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.39 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.04 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 48% | Draw 23% | Slask Wroclaw 29%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Slask Wroclaw win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 46%, Slask Wroclaw 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.