Radomiak Radom 2-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Raków Częstochowa at Stadion Radomiaka in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 April 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadion Radomiaka — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Radomiak Radom) versus 1.60 (Raków Częstochowa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Raków Częstochowa have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Radomiak Radom.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 42% versus Raków Częstochowa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 42% | Raków Częstochowa 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.06 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.802 / defence 1.200 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.997 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.157. Data: 60 Radomiak Radom games / 60 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 33% | Raków Częstochowa 41%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Raków Częstochowa 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 50% | Raków Częstochowa 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 33% | Raków Częstochowa 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.06 / Raków Częstochowa 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.802 / def 1.200 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.997 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Raków Częstochowa xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 26% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (5 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 3W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
26%
3.86
33%
3.04
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.45
1.38
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
6%
15.39
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.38 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 20W 16D 24L from 60 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 35W 15D 10L across 60 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Radomiak Radom heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 8W 9D 13L from 30 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 12W 9D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Raków Częstochowa's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.85 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 20W 16D 24L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 35W 15D 10L in their last 60 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.10 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Raków Częstochowa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 43%, Raków Częstochowa 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Radomiak Radom) and 50% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 60% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 50% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Raków Częstochowa 2-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.06 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.38 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.80 / defence 1.20 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 33% | Raków Częstochowa 41%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 42%, Raków Częstochowa 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Radomiak Radom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.