Legia Warszawa 1-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Jagiellonia at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jagiellonia — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Legia Warszawa at 1.60 PPG versus Jagiellonia's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Jagiellonia 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 53% and Jagiellonia 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 52% | Jagiellonia 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.67 xG and Jagiellonia 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.125 / defence 1.000 | Jagiellonia attack 1.342 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.111. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Legia Warszawa games / 60 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 40% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 32%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Jagiellonia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 80% | Jagiellonia 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 40% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.67 / Jagiellonia 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.125 / def 1.000 | Jagiellonia attack 1.342 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Jagiellonia xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 40% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
Record (5 meetings): Legia Warszawa 3W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.66
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.16
1.49
Jagiellonia xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
6%
16.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.49 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 31W 17D 12L from 60 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 24W 20D 16L across 60 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.83 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 19W 9D 2L from 30 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 6W 14D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.83 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 70%.
Last 60 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 31W 17D 12L in their last 60 games (1.83 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 24W 20D 16L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Jagiellonia away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.20 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when Legia Warszawa won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
5
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 2-2 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Legia Warszawa at 63%, Jagiellonia at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Legia Warszawa) and 57% (Jagiellonia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Legia Warszawa's games and 73% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 57% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.67 xG and Jagiellonia 1.49 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.12 / defence 1.00 against Jagiellonia attack 1.34 / defence 1.05, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 40% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 32%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Jagiellonia 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.83 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.