Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Puszcza Niepołomice face Radomiak Radom.

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Analysis

Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Monday 1 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Form

Puszcza Niepołomice (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Puszcza Niepołomice's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Radomiak Radom have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.20 for Radomiak Radom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Puszcza Niepołomice 1–1 Radomiak Radom — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 68% versus Radomiak Radom 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 48% | Radomiak Radom 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.64 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.951 / defence 1.180 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.043 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.140. Data: built from Puszcza Niepołomice's last 25 games and Radomiak Radom's last 59.

Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 41% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 31%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.43 | Draw 3.55 | Radomiak Radom 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Puszcza Niepołomice are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Puszcza Niepołomice's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Puszcza Niepołomice 80% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 30% (last 10 away games).

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