Piast Gliwice 4-0 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 67% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Piast Gliwice face ŁKS Łódź.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
ŁKS Łódź travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, ŁKS Łódź have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ŁKS Łódź away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Piast Gliwice at 1.40 PPG versus ŁKS Łódź's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Piast Gliwice, 0 for ŁKS Łódź and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 6.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Piast Gliwice 3–3 ŁKS Łódź — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
ŁKS Łódź in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 48% versus ŁKS Łódź 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 36% | ŁKS Łódź 58%). Note also that ŁKS Łódź surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Piast Gliwice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 2.23 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.010 / defence 0.894 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.820 / defence 1.476. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.167. ŁKS Łódź's defence rating of 1.476 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Piast Gliwice's projected output up. Data: built from Piast Gliwice's last 65 games and ŁKS Łódź's last 31.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 67% | Draw 21% | ŁKS Łódź 12%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.48 | Draw 4.83 | ŁKS Łódź 8.44. The model has a clear lean to Piast Gliwice (67%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Piast Gliwice's last 10 home games and ŁKS Łódź's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Piast Gliwice 30% (last 10 home games) | ŁKS Łódź 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 67% | Draw 21% | ŁKS Łódź 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Piast Gliwice 2.23 / ŁKS Łódź 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.010 / def 0.894 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.820 / def 1.476 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.85
ŁKS Łódź xG
52%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź FAQs
What time does Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź?
Piast Gliwice 4 - 0 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 32) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 67% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Piast Gliwice and ŁKS Łódź will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (1.01) and ŁKS Łódź's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ŁKS Łódź's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Piast Gliwice's last 65 games and ŁKS Łódź's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
67%
1.48
21%
4.83
12%
8.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.08
0.85
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.48
67%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
8.44
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
11%
9.29
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
1%
78.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.85 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 31 games, going 8W 15D 8L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, ŁKS Łódź sit at 0.68 PPG from 31 outings (5W 6D 20L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Piast Gliwice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of ŁKS Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 6W 6D 3L across their last 15 home games, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, ŁKS Łódź have taken 0.27 points per game from their last 15 away games (1W 1D 13L). That's a step down from their 0.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ŁKS Łódź's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.97 scored and 2.16 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
ŁKS Łódź
Current Season
Piast Gliwice (Home) vs ŁKS Łódź (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
ŁKS Łódź
Current Season
❓ Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź Form FAQs
What form are Piast Gliwice and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 8W 15D 8L in their last 31 games (1.26 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 5W 6D 20L in their last 31 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or ŁKS Łódź away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.60 PPG; ŁKS Łódź away: 0.27 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or ŁKS Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, ŁKS Łódź in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Piast Gliwice
1
Draws
0
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and ŁKS Łódź?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Piast Gliwice have won 1, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2024: Piast Gliwice 4-0 ŁKS Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and ŁKS Łódź?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 47%, ŁKS Łódź 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Piast Gliwice) and 67% (ŁKS Łódź). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 27% of games; ŁKS Łódź in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs ŁKS Łódź Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Piast Gliwice and ŁKS Łódź matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 47% of ŁKS Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Piast Gliwice and ŁKS Łódź matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Piast Gliwice's matches and 67% of ŁKS Łódź's.
Do Piast Gliwice and ŁKS Łódź matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 93% of ŁKS Łódź's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Piast Gliwice run riot with a 4-0 hammering of ŁKS Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat ŁKS Łódź 4-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 2.23 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.85 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ŁKS Łódź landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.82 / defence 1.48, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 67% | Draw 21% | ŁKS Łódź 12%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 36%, ŁKS Łódź 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.