ŁKS Łódź 1-2 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 31 as ŁKS Łódź welcome Slask Wroclaw to Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, ŁKS Łódź have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Slask Wroclaw away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (ŁKS Łódź) versus 1.00 (Slask Wroclaw). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for ŁKS Łódź, 1 for Slask Wroclaw and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
ŁKS Łódź in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 53% versus Slask Wroclaw 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 57% | Slask Wroclaw 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.26 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.977 / defence 1.495 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.882 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.159. Data: 30 ŁKS Łódź games / 64 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 30% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 42%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Slask Wroclaw 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slask Wroclaw at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ŁKS Łódź 70% | Slask Wroclaw 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 30% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.26 / Slask Wroclaw 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.977 / def 1.495 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.882 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Slask Wroclaw xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
ŁKS Łódź 1 - 2 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 30% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (1 meetings): ŁKS Łódź 0W | Draws 0 | Slask Wroclaw 1W.
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Slask Wroclaw in?
ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates ŁKS Łódź's attack at 0.98x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus ŁKS Łódź's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
30%
3.35
28%
3.57
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
2.79
1.53
Slask Wroclaw xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
6%
15.44
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.53 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ŁKS Łódź's recent record stands at 5W 6D 19L from 30 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 7L across 30 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slask Wroclaw by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ŁKS Łódź heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, ŁKS Łódź have managed 4W 5D 6L from 15 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.70 PPG overall — ŁKS Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 7W 5D 3L across 15 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.33 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Slask Wroclaw in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Current Season
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 5W 6D 19L in their last 30 games (0.70 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Slask Wroclaw's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 1.13 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.73 PPG.
Have ŁKS Łódź or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
ŁKS Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ŁKS Łódź
0
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Slask Wroclaw?
From 2 meetings on record, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when ŁKS Łódź 1-2 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between ŁKS Łódź and Slask Wroclaw?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ŁKS Łódź 60%, Slask Wroclaw 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (ŁKS Łódź) and 40% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw in 47%; ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ŁKS Łódź play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 47% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 40% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
ŁKS Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slask Wroclaw edge out ŁKS Łódź 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat ŁKS Łódź 1-2 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.26 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.53 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.98 / defence 1.50 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.88 / defence 0.86, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 30% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 42%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 57%, Slask Wroclaw 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slask Wroclaw arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.