Motor Lublin 1-2 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Motor Lublin at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Motor Lublin face Lech Poznan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Motor Lublin welcome Lech Poznan to Motor Lublin Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 13 April 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Motor Lublin have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Motor Lublin have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Motor Lublin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lech Poznan stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Motor Lublin) versus 1.50 (Lech Poznan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Motor Lublin, 0 for Lech Poznan and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Motor Lublin 2–1 Lech Poznan — a Motor Lublin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Motor Lublin in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 56% versus Lech Poznan 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 52% | Lech Poznan 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.73 xG and Lech Poznan 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 1.200 / defence 1.267 | Lech Poznan attack 1.002 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.175. Motor Lublin's defence rating of 1.267 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lech Poznan's projected output up. Data: built from Motor Lublin's last 27 games and Lech Poznan's last 61.
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 44% | Draw 23% | Lech Poznan 33%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.30 | Draw 4.32 | Lech Poznan 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.73 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Motor Lublin at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Motor Lublin's last 10 home games and Lech Poznan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Motor Lublin 70% (last 10 home games) | Lech Poznan 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 28 | Venue: Motor Lublin Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 44% | Draw 23% | Lech Poznan 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Motor Lublin 1.73 / Lech Poznan 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 1.200 / def 1.267 | Lech Poznan attack 1.002 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Motor Lublin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Lech Poznan xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan FAQs
What time does Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Motor Lublin Arena.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan?
Motor Lublin 1 - 2 Lech Poznan.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Motor Lublin Arena.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan part of?
Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 28) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 44% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Motor Lublin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Motor Lublin and Lech Poznan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Motor Lublin's attack rating (1.20) and Lech Poznan's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Motor Lublin's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Motor Lublin's last 27 games and Lech Poznan's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Motor Lublin Win
44%
2.30
23%
4.32
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
3.22
1.49
Lech Poznan xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
6%
16.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.49 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Motor Lublin come into this having played 27 games, going 11W 7D 9L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Lech Poznan sit at 1.96 PPG from 27 outings (17W 2D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Lech Poznan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Motor Lublin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Motor Lublin's home form reads 6W 4D 3L across their last 13 home games, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Lech Poznan have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 13 away games (5W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lech Poznan's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Motor Lublin are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.85 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
Motor Lublin (Home) vs Lech Poznan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Motor Lublin
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan Form FAQs
What form are Motor Lublin and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 11W 7D 9L in their last 27 games (1.48 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 17W 2D 8L in their last 27 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Motor Lublin at home or Lech Poznan away?
Motor Lublin's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Motor Lublin at home: 1.69 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Motor Lublin or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Motor Lublin have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Motor Lublin's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Motor Lublin
1
Draws
2
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Lech Poznan?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Motor Lublin have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Lech Poznan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Motor Lublin 0-1 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Motor Lublin and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Motor Lublin 62%, Lech Poznan 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Motor Lublin) and 46% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 46%; Lech Poznan in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Motor Lublin and Lech Poznan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Motor Lublin's recent matches and 38% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Motor Lublin and Lech Poznan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 46% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Lech Poznan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Motor Lublin's recent matches and 77% of Lech Poznan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lech Poznan defy the odds to beat Motor Lublin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Motor Lublin 1-2 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.73 xG and Lech Poznan 1.49 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 1.20 / defence 1.27 against Lech Poznan attack 1.00 / defence 0.96, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 44% | Draw 23% | Lech Poznan 33%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Lech Poznan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 52%, Lech Poznan 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Motor Lublin's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.