Korona Kielce 0-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Korona Kielce versus Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Monday 9 December 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Korona Kielce have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce's home record at Stadion Miejski: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Korona Kielce, 1.30 for Pogon Szczecin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Pogon Szczecin have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Korona Kielce's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2024, ended 0–3 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Pogon Szczecin have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 53% versus Pogon Szczecin 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 39% | Pogon Szczecin 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.47 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.884 / defence 1.249 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.036 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.214. Data: 51 Korona Kielce games / 51 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 35% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 40%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Pogon Szczecin 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Korona Kielce 40% | Pogon Szczecin 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Monday 9 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 35% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Korona Kielce 1.47 / Pogon Szczecin 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.884 / def 1.249 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.036 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Pogon Szczecin xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 9 December 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Korona Kielce 0 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 35% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (5 meetings): Korona Kielce 0W | Draws 2 | Pogon Szczecin 3W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Korona Kielce's attack at 0.88x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.04x) against Korona Kielce's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
35%
2.82
25%
4.08
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
3.04
1.57
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.82
35%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.57 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Korona Kielce come into this having played 51 games, going 12W 19D 20L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.59 PPG from 51 outings (24W 9D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Korona Kielce's home form reads 8W 9D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.20 points per game from 25 outings (8W 6D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.65 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 12W 19D 20L in their last 51 games (1.08 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 24W 9D 18L in their last 51 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.32 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Korona Kielce or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 on 20 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Korona Kielce
3
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin?
From 8 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 1, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 52%, Pogon Szczecin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Korona Kielce) and 48% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 32%; Korona Kielce have failed to score in 28% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 40% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Korona Kielce's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.47 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.57 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Korona Kielce fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.88 / defence 1.25 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.04 / defence 1.14, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 35% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 40%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 39%, Pogon Szczecin 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.