Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 43% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 13:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Pogon Szczecin have gone 9W 0D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Jagiellonia are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Jagiellonia managing 1 and 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2024, ended Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Jagiellonia — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 42% versus Jagiellonia 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 50% | Jagiellonia 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.51 xG and Jagiellonia 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.076 / defence 0.848 | Jagiellonia attack 1.219 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.239. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack rating of 1.219, which lifts their away xG to 1.28. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 50 games and Jagiellonia's last 50.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 43% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 32%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.35 | Draw 3.98 | Jagiellonia 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 1), yet Jagiellonia are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 43% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Pogon Szczecin 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Jagiellonia (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Pogon Szczecin's last 10 home games and Jagiellonia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 20% (last 10 home games) | Jagiellonia 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 13:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 43% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.51 / Jagiellonia 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.076 / def 0.848 | Jagiellonia attack 1.219 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Jagiellonia xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 13:45 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 17) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 43% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.22x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 50 games and Jagiellonia's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
43%
2.35
25%
3.98
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.79
1.28
Jagiellonia xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
7%
14.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.28 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 24W 8D 18L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Jagiellonia's form line: 28W 12D 10L from 50 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.92 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1.96 PPG from their last 24 home games (15W 2D 7L).
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 11W 6D 7L from their last 24 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 2.14 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 66%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Jagiellonia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 24W 8D 18L in their last 50 games (1.60 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 28W 12D 10L in their last 50 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Jagiellonia away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.96 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Jagiellonia have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 4-1 Jagiellonia on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
3
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Jagiellonia 3-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 42%, Jagiellonia 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Pogon Szczecin and 71% for Jagiellonia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 71% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 71% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 83% of Jagiellonia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.51 xG and Jagiellonia 1.28 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.08 / defence 0.85 against Jagiellonia attack 1.22 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 43% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 32%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 50%, Jagiellonia 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.60 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.