Radomiak Radom 1-1 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Radomiak Radom face GKS Katowice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GKS Katowice make the trip to Stadion Radomiaka to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Friday 6 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Radomiak Radom have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
GKS Katowice (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, GKS Katowice have posted 3W 1D 4L from their last 8 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Radomiak Radom, 1.40 for GKS Katowice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 0 for GKS Katowice and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Jul 2024, ended Radomiak Radom 2–1 GKS Katowice — a Radomiak Radom win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
GKS Katowice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 59% versus GKS Katowice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 59% | GKS Katowice 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.88 xG and GKS Katowice 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.043 / defence 1.099 | GKS Katowice attack 1.181 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.229. GKS Katowice's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Radomiak Radom's projected output up. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 50 games and GKS Katowice's last 17.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 33%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.24 | Draw 4.51 | GKS Katowice 3.02. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.88 / 1.59) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and GKS Katowice's last 8 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 60% (last 10 home games) | GKS Katowice 38% (last 8 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Friday 6 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Radomiak Radom 1.88 / GKS Katowice 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.043 / def 1.099 | GKS Katowice attack 1.181 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.59
GKS Katowice xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 6 December 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 GKS Katowice.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice part of?
Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 18) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 45% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 1.04x the league average against GKS Katowice's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GKS Katowice's attack (1.18x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 50 games and GKS Katowice's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
45%
2.24
22%
4.51
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.47
1.59
GKS Katowice xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
5%
19.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.59 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 1D 11L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, GKS Katowice sit at 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.29 for GKS Katowice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across their last 8 home games, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, GKS Katowice have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 8 away games (3W 1D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.53 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs GKS Katowice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
❓ Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 1D 11L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or GKS Katowice away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.25 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: GKS Katowice have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against GKS Katowice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
3
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 1, GKS Katowice have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: GKS Katowice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 62%, GKS Katowice 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Radomiak Radom and 62% for GKS Katowice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 38% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 62% of GKS Katowice's.
Do Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 88% of GKS Katowice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.88 xG and GKS Katowice 1.59 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against GKS Katowice attack 1.18 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 33%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 59%, GKS Katowice 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 0.94 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.