Viking 1-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Viking face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Viking (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Viking's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Viking — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 69% and Bodo/Glimt 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 77% | Bodo/Glimt 75%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Viking surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.82 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.201 / defence 1.116 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.090 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.874 / away 1.293. Data: built from Viking's last 48 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 48.
Result probabilities: Viking 42% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 32%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.38 | Draw 3.81 | Bodo/Glimt 3.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.82 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Viking's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Viking 90% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 19 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 September 2021 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 42% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Viking 1.82 / Bodo/Glimt 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.201 / def 1.116 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.090 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.874 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Viking (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Bodo/Glimt xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Viking vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 19 September 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Viking 1 - 3 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 19) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 42% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Viking and Bodo/Glimt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Viking vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.09x) against Viking's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from Viking's last 48 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.81
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Viking xG
Total xG
3.40
1.57
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
5%
19.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Viking vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Viking and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Viking and 1.57 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Viking have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 21W 12D 15L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 36W 8D 4L from 48 games, 2.42 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Viking.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.96 PPG from their last 23 home games (13W 6D 4L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 15W 5D 3L from their last 23 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.92 scored and 1.04 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 62%.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Viking (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Viking
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Viking vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are Viking and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 21W 12D 15L in their last 48 games (1.56 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 8D 4L in their last 48 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.96 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Viking or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won Viking 5-0 Bodo/Glimt on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Viking
1
Draws
5
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Viking vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Viking have won 4, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Viking and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Bodo/Glimt 3-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Viking, 70% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Viking and 74% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Viking vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Viking and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Viking's games and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Viking and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Viking's matches and 74% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Viking and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Viking's recent matches and 74% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Viking 1-3 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.82 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.57 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Viking fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 42% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 32%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bodo/Glimt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 77%, Bodo/Glimt 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.56. Form held, and they took the win. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.