Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rosenborg face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 02:00 UK time.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Rosenborg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Rosenborg, 1.60 for Bodo/Glimt — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 58% and Bodo/Glimt 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 67% | Bodo/Glimt 75%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rosenborg surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.84 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.217 / defence 0.925 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.104 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.864 / away 1.269. Data: built from Rosenborg's last 48 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 48.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 48% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 25%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.08 | Draw 3.71 | Bodo/Glimt 4.01. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rosenborg 50% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 22 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 September 2021 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 48% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Rosenborg 1.84 / Bodo/Glimt 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.217 / def 0.925 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.104 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.864 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Bodo/Glimt xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 22) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 48% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.22) and Bodo/Glimt's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.10x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Rosenborg's last 48 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.71
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.14
1.29
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
4%
25.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.29 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 24W 11D 13L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 36W 8D 4L from 48 games, 2.42 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rosenborg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.22 PPG from their last 23 home games (16W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 15W 5D 3L from their last 23 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.92 scored and 1.04 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 62%.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Rosenborg (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rosenborg
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 24W 11D 13L in their last 48 games (1.73 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 8D 4L in their last 48 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.22 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Rosenborg on 24 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
4
Draws
4
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rosenborg have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Bodo/Glimt 4-2 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Rosenborg, 70% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Rosenborg and 74% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Rosenborg's games and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Rosenborg's matches and 74% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 74% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.84 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.29 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.22 / defence 0.93 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.10 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 48% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 25%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 67%, Bodo/Glimt 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.