Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien (matchday 23). Kick-off: Saturday 25 September 2021 at 02:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sarpsborg 08 FF's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 63% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 76% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 45%). Note also that Sarpsborg 08 FF surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.48 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.219 / defence 0.874 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.791 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.834 / away 1.314. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 49 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 49.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 10%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 9.98. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (70%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 23 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 September 2021 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.48 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.219 / def 0.874 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.791 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.834 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
56%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 23) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 70% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 10% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.48. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.79x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 49 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
70%
1.43
20%
5.00
10%
9.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.39
0.91
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
9.98
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
8%
11.97
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
1%
119.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.91 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 37W 8D 4L from 49 games, a 2.43 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 23L across 49 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.37 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 20W 3D 1L from their last 24 home games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 4W 6D 14L across their last 24 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.92 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.08 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Sarpsborg 08 FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 37W 8D 4L in their last 49 games (2.43 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 13W 13D 23L in their last 49 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.62 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 15 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 6-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 April 2026: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 54%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bodo/Glimt and 46% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 54% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 46% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 62% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF finished level at 0-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.48 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.91 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.22 / defence 0.87 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.79 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 70% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 10%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 76%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.