Tromso 0-0 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Tromso at 43%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Romssa Arena to face Tromso in Eliteserien (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Tromso have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Tromso have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 0.60 PPG clear of Tromso over their recent games (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Tromso, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 May 2024, ended Tromso 0–4 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 50% versus Bodo/Glimt 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 57% | Bodo/Glimt 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.58 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.025 / defence 1.004 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.094 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.239. Data: built from Tromso's last 54 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 54.

Result probabilities: Tromso 43% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 33%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.35 | Draw 4.09 | Bodo/Glimt 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Tromso's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tromso 40% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights