Bodo/Glimt 2-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 75% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodo/Glimt face Rosenborg.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Monday 28 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Bodo/Glimt's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Rosenborg (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Rosenborg away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Bodo/Glimt against 2.20 for Rosenborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended Bodo/Glimt 3–1 Rosenborg — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

Rosenborg — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 56% and Rosenborg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 64% | Rosenborg 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.76 xG and Rosenborg 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.687 / defence 0.759 | Rosenborg attack 1.036 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.206. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.687 — their 2.76 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt have a tight defence (rating 0.759), which is pulling Rosenborg's projected output down. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 55 games and Rosenborg's last 55.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 75% | Draw 14% | Rosenborg 10%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.33 | Draw 6.90 | Rosenborg 9.75. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (75%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 75% — clear model lean.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.71 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 70% (last 10 away games).

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