Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Kristiansund BK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 24 as Bodo/Glimt welcome Kristiansund BK to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bodo/Glimt: 6 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Kristiansund BK, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 4–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 54% versus Kristiansund BK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 54% | Kristiansund BK 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.26 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.616 / defence 0.781 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.735 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.219. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.616 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Bodo/Glimt games / 22 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 17% | Kristiansund BK 10%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Kristiansund BK 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Kristiansund BK 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 17% | Kristiansund BK 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 45% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.26 / Kristiansund BK 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.616 / def 0.781 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.735 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Kristiansund BK xG
45%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Bodo/Glimt 4 - 0 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 73% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
Record (6 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 6W | Draws 0 | Kristiansund BK 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.62x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.26. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 3-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
73%
1.37
17%
5.80
10%
10.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.96
0.70
Kristiansund BK xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.80
17%
Draw
10.05
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
10%
9.60
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
1%
96.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.70 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 24 games, going 16W 5D 3L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 9W 3D 0L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.21 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 16W 5D 3L in their last 24 games (2.21 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.50 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, Kristiansund BK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Kristiansund BK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 50%, Kristiansund BK 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Bodo/Glimt) and 33% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Kristiansund BK in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 42% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Bodo/Glimt's recent games and 33% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Kristiansund BK 4-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.26 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.70 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.62 / defence 0.78 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.73 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 17% | Kristiansund BK 10%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 54%, Kristiansund BK 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.75 average — above their attacking norm. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.