Tromso 2-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Tromso face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Romssa Arena to face Tromso in Eliteserien (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Tuesday 16 May 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Tromso have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Tromso have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Tromso are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Tromso against 1.90 for Bodo/Glimt. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Tromso's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Tromso's games and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Tromso, 0 for Bodo/Glimt and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Sep 2022, ended Tromso 3–2 Bodo/Glimt — a Tromso win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tromso 65% and Bodo/Glimt 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 52% | Bodo/Glimt 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Tromso surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 0.97 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.876 / defence 0.901 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.414 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.215. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.738, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Tromso's projected output down. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.414, which lifts their away xG to 1.55. Data: built from Tromso's last 36 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 37.
Result probabilities: Tromso 21% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 48%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 4.71 | Draw 3.29 | Bodo/Glimt 2.07. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Tromso's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tromso 70% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 7 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 May 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 21% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Tromso 0.97 / Bodo/Glimt 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.876 / def 0.901 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.414 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Bodo/Glimt xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Tuesday 16 May 2023 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Tromso 2 - 3 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 7) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 21% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Tromso and Bodo/Glimt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tromso's attack at 0.88x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.41x) against Tromso's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Tromso's last 36 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
21%
4.71
30%
3.29
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.52
1.55
Bodo/Glimt xG
4.71
21%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
5%
22.17
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Tromso and 1.55 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 24D 18L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.05 PPG from 60 outings (36W 15D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Tromso's home form reads 11W 11D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 1.97 points per game from their last 30 away games (18W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.42 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Tromso (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tromso
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 18W 24D 18L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 15D 9L in their last 60 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.47 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Tromso or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Tromso on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tromso
3
Draws
4
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tromso have won 3, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Tromso 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 63%, Bodo/Glimt 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Tromso) and 60% (Bodo/Glimt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tromso and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Tromso's games and 57% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Tromso's matches and 60% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Tromso and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Tromso's recent matches and 67% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Tromso 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Tromso 2-3 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 0.97 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.55 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Tromso beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.41 / defence 0.74, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 21% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 48%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 52%, Bodo/Glimt 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Tromso (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.