Bodo/Glimt 5-1 Viking – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Viking encounter.

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Analysis

Viking make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Monday 29 May 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Bodo/Glimt's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Viking have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Viking away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 1.90 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Viking's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Viking in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2022, ended Bodo/Glimt 5–4 Viking — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 58% and Viking 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 62% | Viking 70%). Note also that Viking surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.07 xG and Viking 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.387 / defence 1.001 | Viking attack 1.012 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.187. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.387 — their 2.07 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 38 games and Viking's last 37.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 56% | Draw 23% | Viking 21%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.78 | Draw 4.29 | Viking 4.86. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.07 / 1.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 4.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 home games) | Viking 90% (last 10 away games).

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