Bodo/Glimt 3-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodo/Glimt face Rosenborg.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Bodo/Glimt's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Rosenborg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Rosenborg away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Bodo/Glimt against 1.90 for Rosenborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rosenborg in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Rosenborg edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2022, ended Bodo/Glimt 2–3 Rosenborg — a Rosenborg win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Rosenborg — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 58% and Rosenborg 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 62% | Rosenborg 77%). Note also that Rosenborg surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.79 xG and Rosenborg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.419 / defence 0.918 | Rosenborg attack 0.957 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.170. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.419 — their 1.79 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 36 games and Rosenborg's last 36.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 53% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 19%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.88 | Draw 3.68 | Rosenborg 5.13. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 4.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 90% (last 10 away games).

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