Sandefjord 1-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 58%, yet the head-to-head data favours Lillestrom — this Sandefjord vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lillestrom travel to Jotun Arena to take on Sandefjord in Eliteserien (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sandefjord have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandefjord at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lillestrom stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lillestrom away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.10 (Lillestrom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Sandefjord's games and 70% of Lillestrom's (from Sandefjord's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Lillestrom have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Sandefjord.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Jul 2023, ended Sandefjord 2–4 Lillestrom — a Lillestrom win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Lillestrom have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Lillestrom trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 63% and Lillestrom 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 75% | Lillestrom 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sandefjord surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Lillestrom have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 54% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.94 xG and Lillestrom 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.981 / defence 0.967 | Lillestrom attack 0.752 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.451. Lillestrom's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Sandefjord's last 59 games and Lillestrom's last 59.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 58% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 20%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.73 | Draw 4.58 | Lillestrom 4.95. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sandefjord's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sandefjord 60% (last 10 home games) | Lillestrom 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 30 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 58% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Sandefjord 1.94 / Lillestrom 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.981 / def 0.967 | Lillestrom attack 0.752 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Lillestrom xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sandefjord vs Lillestrom FAQs
What time does Sandefjord vs Lillestrom kick off?
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Sandefjord 1 - 0 Lillestrom.
Where is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom part of?
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 30) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 58% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sandefjord and Lillestrom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sandefjord vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.98) and Lillestrom's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sandefjord's last 59 games and Lillestrom's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.58
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.00
1.06
Lillestrom xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
14%
6.96
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
3%
34.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sandefjord vs Lillestrom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.06 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord come into this having played 59 games, going 13W 13D 33L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.63 PPG from 59 outings (29W 9D 21L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sandefjord's home form reads 7W 11D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.34 points per game from their last 29 away games (11W 6D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.66 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
Sandefjord (Home) vs Lillestrom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sandefjord
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Sandefjord vs Lillestrom Form FAQs
What form are Sandefjord and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 13W 13D 33L in their last 59 games (0.88 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 29W 9D 21L in their last 59 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.10 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lillestrom have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 May 2022, when Lillestrom won Sandefjord 1-4 Lillestrom.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
1
Draws
7
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Sandefjord vs Lillestrom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sandefjord have won 2, Lillestrom have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Lillestrom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Sandefjord 0-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 72%, Lillestrom at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Sandefjord and 66% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sandefjord vs Lillestrom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sandefjord and Lillestrom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Sandefjord's games and 62% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sandefjord and Lillestrom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Sandefjord's matches and 66% of Lillestrom's.
Do Sandefjord and Lillestrom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 69% of Lillestrom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Lillestrom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Lillestrom 1-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.94 xG and Lillestrom 1.06 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against Lillestrom attack 0.75 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 58% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 20%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 75%, Lillestrom 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Lillestrom's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Sandefjord winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.