ODD Ballklubb 4-1 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 67% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as ODD Ballklubb face Aalesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb host Aalesund at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 3 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, ODD Ballklubb have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Aalesund — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Aalesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — ODD Ballklubb at 1.00 PPG versus Aalesund's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, Aalesund 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Jul 2023, ended ODD Ballklubb 3–0 Aalesund — a ODD Ballklubb win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Aalesund in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 54% versus Aalesund 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 54% | Aalesund 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.25 xG and Aalesund 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.893 / defence 0.878 | Aalesund attack 0.727 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.451. Aalesund's defence rating of 1.434 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing ODD Ballklubb's projected output up. Aalesund's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from ODD Ballklubb's last 59 games and Aalesund's last 59.
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 67% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 14%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.49 | Draw 5.37 | Aalesund 7.08. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (67%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Aalesund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ODD Ballklubb 50% (last 10 home games) | Aalesund 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 30 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 67% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.25 / Aalesund 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.893 / def 0.878 | Aalesund attack 0.727 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Aalesund xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund FAQs
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
ODD Ballklubb 4 - 1 Aalesund.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 30) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 67% chance of winning, Aalesund a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.89) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from ODD Ballklubb's last 59 games and Aalesund's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.37
14%
7.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.18
0.93
Aalesund xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
7.08
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
11%
9.47
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
1%
67.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 0.93 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 59 games, going 22W 14D 23L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 0.97 PPG from 59 outings (15W 12D 32L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.36 PPG, Aalesund on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 14W 5D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 0.66 points per game from their last 29 away games (5W 4D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 0.92 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Aalesund
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb (Home) vs Aalesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Aalesund
Current Season
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund Form FAQs
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 22W 14D 23L in their last 59 games (1.36 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 15W 12D 32L in their last 59 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Aalesund away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.62 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 3 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
ODD Ballklubb have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Oct 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won Aalesund 0-3 ODD Ballklubb.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Aalesund specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Aalesund have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 December 2023: ODD Ballklubb 4-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 55%, Aalesund 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for ODD Ballklubb and 72% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 52% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 72% of Aalesund's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 76% of Aalesund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ODD Ballklubb run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Aalesund 4-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.25 xG and Aalesund 0.93 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Aalesund attack 0.73 / defence 1.43, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 67% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 14%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 54%, Aalesund 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.36 PPG, Aalesund 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Aalesund (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.