Rosenborg 2-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rosenborg face Sandefjord.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Sandefjord at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 1). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rosenborg at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Sandefjord have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 1.10 PPG versus Sandefjord's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Sandefjord's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Rosenborg, 1 for Sandefjord and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Rosenborg 2–3 Sandefjord — a Sandefjord win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 67% and Sandefjord 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 73% | Sandefjord 73%). Note also that Sandefjord surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Rosenborg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.88 xG and Sandefjord 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.016 / defence 1.006 | Sandefjord attack 1.051 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.453. Data: built from Rosenborg's last 30 games and Sandefjord's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 46% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 32%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.18 | Draw 4.49 | Sandefjord 3.14. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.88 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Sandefjord's last 10 away games) averaging 4.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rosenborg 70% (last 10 home games) | Sandefjord 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Rosenborg 30 games, Sandefjord 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 1 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 46% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Rosenborg 1.88 / Sandefjord 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.016 / def 1.006 | Sandefjord attack 1.051 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Sandefjord xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rosenborg vs Sandefjord FAQs
What time does Rosenborg vs Sandefjord kick off?
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Rosenborg 2 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord part of?
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 1) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 46% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Rosenborg and Sandefjord will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rosenborg vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rosenborg's last 30 games and Sandefjord's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
46%
2.18
22%
4.49
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.42
1.54
Sandefjord xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
10%
10.13
5%
20.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rosenborg vs Sandefjord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.54 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 27W 14D 19L from 60 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Sandefjord, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 33L across 60 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 19W 5D 6L from their last 30 home games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sandefjord's away record stands at 6W 2D 22L across their last 30 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.50 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Sandefjord in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
Rosenborg (Home) vs Sandefjord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rosenborg
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Rosenborg vs Sandefjord Form FAQs
What form are Rosenborg and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Sandefjord away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.07 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 May 2022, when Rosenborg won Rosenborg 3-0 Sandefjord.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rosenborg
4
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Rosenborg vs Sandefjord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rosenborg have won 4, Sandefjord have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Sandefjord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Rosenborg 1-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Sandefjord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 77% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rosenborg vs Sandefjord Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rosenborg and Sandefjord matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 53% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rosenborg and Sandefjord matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 77% of Sandefjord's.
Do Rosenborg and Sandefjord matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 80% of Sandefjord's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Sandefjord 2-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.88 xG and Sandefjord 1.54 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sandefjord landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Sandefjord attack 1.05 / defence 1.10, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 46% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 32%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 73%, Sandefjord 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.