Rosenborg 3-2 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Tromso encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 12 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lerkendal Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Tromso (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Tromso have posted 3W 3D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Rosenborg's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Tromso's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Tromso half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 65% and Tromso 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 71% | Tromso 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.18 xG and Tromso 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.173 / defence 0.834 | Tromso attack 0.890 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.854 / away 1.256. Data: 47 Rosenborg games / 17 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 64% | Draw 23% | Tromso 13%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.56 | Draw 4.35 | Tromso 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 40% | Tromso 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 64% | Draw 23% | Tromso 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Rosenborg 2.18 / Tromso 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.173 / def 0.834 | Tromso attack 0.890 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.854 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Tromso xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Tromso kick off?
Rosenborg vs Tromso kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Tromso?
Rosenborg 3 - 2 Tromso.
Where is Rosenborg vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Tromso part of?
Rosenborg vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 64% chance of winning, Tromso a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rosenborg and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Tromso?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Tromso in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Tromso (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.17x the league average against Tromso's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.89x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
64%
1.56
23%
4.35
13%
7.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.11
0.93
Tromso xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
7.64
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
11%
8.82
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
1%
67.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.93 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Tromso?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rosenborg come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 4D 5L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tromso sit at 0.88 PPG from 17 outings (3W 6D 8L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Rosenborg's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Tromso have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 0.88 PPG overall record — Tromso travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.12 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Tromso in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Tromso have gone 3W 6D 8L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Tromso away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.00 PPG; Tromso away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Tromso go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 3-0 on 23 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
0
Draws
5
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Tromso have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Tromso 2-0 Rosenborg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 38%, Tromso 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Rosenborg) and 50% (Tromso). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 50% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Rosenborg's matches and 50% of Tromso's.
Do Rosenborg and Tromso tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Tromso in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Tromso 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Tromso 3-2 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.18 xG and Tromso 0.93 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tromso outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.17 / defence 0.83 against Tromso attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 64% | Draw 23% | Tromso 13%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 71%, Tromso 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tromso (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.