Lillestrom 1-4 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 42%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Lillestrom and Bodo/Glimt meet at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Lillestrom's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Lillestrom have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lillestrom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Lillestrom, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 8 May 2022, ended Lillestrom 1–1 Bodo/Glimt — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 60% versus Bodo/Glimt 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 58% | Bodo/Glimt 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.47 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.920 / defence 0.727 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.282 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.365. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.282, which lifts their away xG to 1.27. Lillestrom have a tight defence (rating 0.727), which is pulling Bodo/Glimt's projected output down. Data: built from Lillestrom's last 53 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 53.

Result probabilities: Lillestrom 42% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 33%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.39 | Draw 3.93 | Bodo/Glimt 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Lillestrom's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lillestrom 40% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights