Tromso 0-1 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tromso and Molde meet at Alfheim Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's home record at Alfheim Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Molde (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Molde have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Molde are 1.20 PPG clear of Tromso in recent Eliteserien fixtures (3.00 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Tromso have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Molde in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Tromso, 2 for Molde and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2022, ended 1–5 with Molde winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Tromso half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Molde half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 62% versus Molde 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 49% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.54 xG and Molde 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.119 / defence 0.994 | Molde attack 1.363 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.812 / away 1.373. Molde's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Tromso games / 53 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 32% | Draw 22% | Molde 45%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 3.12 | Draw 4.55 | Molde 2.22. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 70% | Molde 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 32% | Draw 22% | Molde 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Tromso 1.54 / Molde 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.119 / def 0.994 | Molde attack 1.363 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.812 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Molde (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Molde xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Molde kick off?
Tromso vs Molde kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Molde?
Tromso 0 - 1 Molde.
Where is Tromso vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Molde part of?
Tromso vs Molde is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 32% chance of winning, Molde a 45% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Tromso and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Molde?
Record (2 meetings): Tromso 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 2W.
What form are Tromso and Molde in?
Tromso (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Molde (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Tromso's attack rating (1.12) and Molde's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.36x) against Tromso's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
32%
3.10
22%
4.47
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.40
1.86
Molde xG
3.10
32%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
16%
6.43
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
5%
19.94
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Tromso and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Tromso and 1.86 for Molde, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tromso's recent record stands at 15W 21D 17L from 53 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 36W 9D 8L across 53 games — 2.21 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tromso heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Tromso have managed 10W 9D 7L from 26 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Molde's away record stands at 16W 6D 4L across 26 trips, a 2.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tromso are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.34 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Molde in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Molde in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 15W 21D 17L in their last 53 games (1.25 PPG), while Molde have gone 36W 9D 8L in their last 53 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.50 PPG; Molde away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Tromso or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Molde in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 5-1 on 10 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Tromso
0
Draws
6
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 4, Molde have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Tromso 2-0 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 62%, Molde 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Tromso) and 58% (Molde).
On the defensive side: Tromso keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Molde in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Tromso's games and 58% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Tromso's recent games and 58% of Molde's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and Molde tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Molde in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Tromso 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Tromso 0-1 at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.54 xG and Molde 1.86 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tromso fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Molde landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.12 / defence 0.99 against Molde attack 1.36 / defence 0.76, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 32% | Draw 22% | Molde 45%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 49%, Molde 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Molde's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.