Bodo/Glimt 4-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 73% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sandefjord travel to Aspmyra Stadion to take on Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bodo/Glimt have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Bodo/Glimt have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sandefjord stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Sandefjord have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Sandefjord and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2022, ended Bodo/Glimt 2–1 Sandefjord — a Bodo/Glimt win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 57% versus Sandefjord 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 57% | Sandefjord 72%). Note also that Sandefjord surrender HT leads in 39% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.94 xG and Sandefjord 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.287 / defence 1.025 | Sandefjord attack 0.856 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.852 / away 1.375. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.287 — their 2.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sandefjord's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bodo/Glimt's projected output up. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 54 games and Sandefjord's last 54.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 15% | Sandefjord 13%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.37 | Draw 6.85 | Sandefjord 7.91. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (73%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 4.15. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.15 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.94 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 73% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Sandefjord's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 home games) | Sandefjord 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 25 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 October 2022 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 15% | Sandefjord 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% (Under 22%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.94 / Sandefjord 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.287 / def 1.025 | Sandefjord attack 0.856 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.852 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.94
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sandefjord xG
66%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Bodo/Glimt 4 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 25) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 73% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 13% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.29x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 54 games and Sandefjord's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
73%
1.37
15%
6.85
13%
7.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.94
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
4.15
1.21
Sandefjord xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.85
15%
Draw
7.91
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
5%
19.01
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
1%
150.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.94 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.21 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 4.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 54 games, going 31W 15D 8L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.09 PPG from 54 outings (16W 11D 27L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 15W 10D 2L across their last 27 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 27 away games (9W 1D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.37 scored and 1.98 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Sandefjord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 31W 15D 8L in their last 54 games (2.00 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 16W 11D 27L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Sandefjord away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.04 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 4-1 Sandefjord.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Sandefjord have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Bodo/Glimt 3-2 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 59%, Sandefjord 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Bodo/Glimt and 78% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sandefjord in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 52% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 78% of Sandefjord's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 85% of Sandefjord's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sandefjord 4-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.94 xG and Sandefjord 1.21 xG, a combined 4.15. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.29 / defence 1.02 against Sandefjord attack 0.86 / defence 1.24, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 15% | Sandefjord 13%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 57%, Sandefjord 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandefjord's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.48 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.