Brann 1-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Brann and Bodo/Glimt meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 May 2021 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Brann's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Brann's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Bodo/Glimt have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Brann's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of Brann's games and 80% of Bodo/Glimt's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Brann — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 73% and Bodo/Glimt 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 57% | Bodo/Glimt 90%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.09 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.828 / defence 1.158 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.189 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.381. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.791, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Brann's projected output down. Data: built from Brann's last 34 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Brann 20% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 55%. Fair-value odds: Brann 5.05 | Draw 3.91 | Bodo/Glimt 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Brann's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brann 90% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 80% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Brann 34 games, Bodo/Glimt 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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