Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 71% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodo/Glimt face Tromso.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Sunday 16 May 2021 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt at home: 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.28 xG and Tromso 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.411 / defence 0.805 | Tromso attack 0.727 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.287. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.411 — their 2.28 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Tromso's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 32 games and Tromso's last 3. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 71% | Draw 19% | Tromso 10%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.41 | Draw 5.28 | Tromso 10.07. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (71%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Bodo/Glimt 32 games, Tromso 3) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 8 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 71% | Draw 19% | Tromso 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.28 / Tromso 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.411 / def 0.805 | Tromso attack 0.727 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Tromso xG
48%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 8) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 71% chance of winning, Tromso a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Tromso will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.41x the league average against Tromso's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 2.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.73x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 32 games and Tromso's last 3, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 3-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
71%
1.41
19%
5.28
10%
10.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.04
0.75
Tromso xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.28
19%
Draw
10.07
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
10%
9.81
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
1%
98.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.75 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Pre-Season
Tromso
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Tromso (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Pre-Season
Tromso
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Tromso on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bodo/Glimt
3
Draws
3
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, Tromso have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Tromso last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Tromso 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt and Tromso finished level at 0-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.28 xG and Tromso 0.75 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.41 / defence 0.81 against Tromso attack 0.73 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 71% | Draw 19% | Tromso 10%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.