Ham-Kam 0-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ham-Kam and Lillestrom meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Monday 29 May 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 3W 3D 4L at Briskeby Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lillestrom have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lillestrom away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.20 for Lillestrom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ham-Kam lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–3 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Lillestrom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 70% and Lillestrom 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 53% | Lillestrom 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.37 xG and Lillestrom 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.849 / defence 1.165 | Lillestrom attack 1.152 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.187. Data: 37 Ham-Kam games / 37 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 31% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 41%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Lillestrom 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 60% | Lillestrom 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 31% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Ham-Kam 1.37 / Lillestrom 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.849 / def 1.165 | Lillestrom attack 1.152 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Lillestrom xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom kicked off at 18:15 on Monday 29 May 2023 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Ham-Kam 0 - 0 Lillestrom.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom part of?
Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 31% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ham-Kam and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Lillestrom?
Record (2 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 1 | Lillestrom 1W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Lillestrom in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.15x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
31%
3.22
28%
3.55
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.96
1.59
Lillestrom xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
6%
15.83
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.59 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ham-Kam come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 13D 11L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (16W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ham-Kam's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.60 points per game from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.63 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 6W 13D 11L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 16W 5D 9L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.20 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Ham-Kam or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ham-Kam have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Ham-Kam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 5-0 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
2
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Lillestrom?
From 7 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, Lillestrom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-0 Lillestrom.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 60%, Lillestrom 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Ham-Kam and 73% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ham-Kam's games and 67% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Ham-Kam's matches and 73% of Lillestrom's.
Do Ham-Kam and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ham-Kam's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Ham-Kam and Lillestrom drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.37 xG and Lillestrom 1.59 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.85 / defence 1.17 against Lillestrom attack 1.15 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 31% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 41%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 53%, Lillestrom 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Lillestrom's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.