Valerenga 0-6 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Valerenga at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valerenga face Bodo/Glimt.

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Fixture Analysis

Valerenga welcome Bodo/Glimt to Intility Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 16 October 2022 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Valerenga — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Valerenga have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Bodo/Glimt away from home: 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Valerenga) versus 2.00 (Bodo/Glimt). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Valerenga, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Apr 2022, ended Valerenga 1–5 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Valerenga trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Bodo/Glimt trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 62% and Bodo/Glimt 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 58% | Bodo/Glimt 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.96 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.251 / defence 0.714 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.427 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.875 / away 1.375. Valerenga carry an above-average attack rating of 1.251 — their 1.96 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.427, which lifts their away xG to 1.40. Valerenga have a tight defence (rating 0.714), which is pulling Bodo/Glimt's projected output down. Data: built from Valerenga's last 55 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 55.

Result probabilities: Valerenga 51% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 27%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.97 | Draw 4.57 | Bodo/Glimt 3.64. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.96 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Valerenga at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Valerenga's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Valerenga 30% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 away games).

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