Stromsgodset vs Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Molde travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stromsgodset's home record at Marienlyst Stadion: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Molde's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Molde's 2.50 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Stromsgodset's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stromsgodset register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Molde in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Stromsgodset trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Molde trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 63% and Molde 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stromsgodset 67% | Molde 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.52 xG and Molde 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.037 / defence 1.076 | Molde attack 1.233 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.298. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.233 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Stromsgodset games / 36 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 33% | Draw 26% | Molde 41%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Molde 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | Molde 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 33% | Draw 26% | Molde 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Stromsgodset 1.52 / Molde 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.037 / def 1.076 | Molde attack 1.233 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Molde (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Molde xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Molde kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Molde part of?
Stromsgodset vs Molde is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 33% chance of winning, Molde a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Stromsgodset and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Molde?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Molde in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Molde (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 1.04x the league average against Molde's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
33%
3.05
26%
3.82
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.25
1.72
Molde xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
6%
17.09
9%
11.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.72 for Molde, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 20W 2D 8L across 30 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stromsgodset heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 3W 6D 6L from 15 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Molde's away record stands at 8W 1D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.57 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Molde in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Molde in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Molde have gone 20W 2D 8L in their last 30 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.00 PPG; Molde away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Stromsgodset won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Molde specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
6
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Molde have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 3-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stromsgodset at 60%, Molde at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Stromsgodset and 100% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Stromsgodset's games and 80% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Stromsgodset's matches and 100% of Molde's.
Do Stromsgodset and Molde tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Molde in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stromsgodset's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Molde finished level at 0-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.52 xG and Molde 1.72 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Molde landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against Molde attack 1.23 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 33% | Draw 26% | Molde 41%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 78% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 67%, Molde 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.