Willem II 0-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Willem II face Almere City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Almere City FC make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eredivisie (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 17:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Willem II have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Willem II's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Almere City FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Almere City FC away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Willem II against 0.90 for Almere City FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2024, ended Willem II 1–0 Almere City FC — a Willem II win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 58% versus Almere City FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 48% | Almere City FC 48%). Note also that Almere City FC surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Willem II recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.19 xG and Almere City FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.828 / defence 1.261 | Almere City FC attack 0.686 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.314. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.686 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Willem II's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Almere City FC's projected output up. Data: built from Willem II's last 26 games and Almere City FC's last 60.
Result probabilities: Willem II 37% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.72 | Draw 3.45 | Almere City FC 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 60% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 27 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 17:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 37% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Willem II 1.19 / Almere City FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.828 / def 1.261 | Almere City FC attack 0.686 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Willem II (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Almere City FC xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Willem II vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does Willem II vs Almere City FC kick off?
Willem II vs Almere City FC kicked off at 17:45 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Willem II 0 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is Willem II vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Almere City FC part of?
Willem II vs Almere City FC is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 37% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Willem II and Almere City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Willem II vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Willem II's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.69x) against Willem II's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Willem II's last 26 games and Almere City FC's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.45
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.33
1.14
Almere City FC xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Willem II vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Willem II and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Willem II and 1.14 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 14D 18L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 0.82 PPG from 60 outings (10W 19D 31L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Willem II's home form reads 16W 6D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 30 away games (5W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.82 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
Willem II (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Willem II
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Willem II vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are Willem II and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 10W 19D 31L in their last 60 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Almere City FC away?
Willem II's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.80 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Willem II have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Willem II
1
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Willem II vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Almere City FC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Willem II have won 5, Almere City FC have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Willem II and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Willem II 2-0 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Almere City FC?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 67%, Almere City FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Willem II) and 47% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Willem II vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Willem II and Almere City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Willem II's recent matches and 40% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Willem II and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Willem II's matches and 47% of Almere City FC's.
Do Willem II and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Willem II's recent matches and 77% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Willem II 0-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.19 xG and Almere City FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Willem II fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Almere City FC outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.83 / defence 1.26 against Almere City FC attack 0.69 / defence 0.90, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 37% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 34%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, Almere City FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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