Almere City FC 2-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Almere City FC face PEC Zwolle.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eredivisie (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 21:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
PEC Zwolle (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PEC Zwolle away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.20 for PEC Zwolle. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Almere City FC, 3 for PEC Zwolle and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Almere City FC 0–1 PEC Zwolle — a PEC Zwolle win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 44% versus PEC Zwolle 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 48% | PEC Zwolle 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.24 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.701 / defence 1.282 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.939 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.351. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Almere City FC's defence rating of 1.282 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PEC Zwolle's projected output up. Data: built from Almere City FC's last 61 games and PEC Zwolle's last 61.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 29% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 46%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.44 | Draw 4.04 | PEC Zwolle 2.17. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Almere City FC's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Almere City FC 40% (last 10 home games) | PEC Zwolle 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 28 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 29% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Almere City FC 1.24 / PEC Zwolle 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.701 / def 1.282 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.939 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.63
PEC Zwolle xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle FAQs
What time does Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle?
Almere City FC 2 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 29% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.70) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.94x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from Almere City FC's last 61 games and PEC Zwolle's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
29%
3.44
25%
4.04
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.87
1.63
PEC Zwolle xG
3.44
29%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
6%
17.48
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.63 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 11W 19D 31L from 61 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 28L across 61 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.07 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 5W 9D 16L from their last 30 home games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 5W 12D 13L across their last 30 away games, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.26 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 61%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Almere City FC (Home) vs PEC Zwolle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almere City FC
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle Form FAQs
What form are Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 11W 19D 31L in their last 61 games (0.85 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 16W 17D 28L in their last 61 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.80 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle, the earliest from January 2023. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Almere City FC have won 1, PEC Zwolle have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Almere City FC 2-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, PEC Zwolle 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Almere City FC) and 53% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 37% of games; PEC Zwolle in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Almere City FC's games and 63% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Almere City FC's recent games and 53% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 70% of PEC Zwolle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle finished level at 2-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.24 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.63 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.28 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 29% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 46%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 48%, PEC Zwolle 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.85 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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