NAC Breda 1-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 47%, yet in-form Groningen provide a compelling counter-argument — this NAC Breda vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Groningen travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Groningen — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Groningen are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 1, Groningen 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2024, ended 1–4 with Groningen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Groningen in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 64% versus Groningen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 57% | Groningen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.44 xG and Groningen 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.785 / defence 1.033 | Groningen attack 0.753 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.315. NAC Breda's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 NAC Breda games / 25 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 47% | Draw 27% | Groningen 27%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Groningen 3.70. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Groningen (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 60% | Groningen 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 47% | Draw 27% | Groningen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG NAC Breda 1.44 / Groningen 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.785 / def 1.033 | Groningen attack 0.753 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Groningen xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Groningen kick off?
NAC Breda vs Groningen kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Groningen?
NAC Breda 1 - 1 Groningen.
Where is NAC Breda vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Groningen part of?
NAC Breda vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 47% chance of winning, Groningen a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both NAC Breda and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Groningen?
Record (3 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 1 | Groningen 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Groningen in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Groningen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.79x the league average against Groningen's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
47%
2.15
27%
3.75
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.46
1.02
Groningen xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
6%
15.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.02 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 25W 16D 22L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 30W 16D 17L from 63 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.44 PPG, Groningen on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.65 PPG from 31 outings (14W 9D 8L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 12W 6D 13L from 31 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.51 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Groningen in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Groningen in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 25W 16D 22L in their last 63 games (1.44 PPG), while Groningen have gone 30W 16D 17L in their last 63 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Groningen away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.65 PPG; Groningen away: 1.35 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Groningen in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Aug 2024, when Groningen won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
3
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, Groningen have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Groningen 0-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 68%, Groningen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (NAC Breda) and 52% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: Groningen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of NAC Breda's games and 52% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of NAC Breda's recent games and 52% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Groningen tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Groningen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and Groningen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda and Groningen finished level at 1-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.44 xG and Groningen 1.02 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.79 / defence 1.03 against Groningen attack 0.75 / defence 1.15, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 47% | Draw 27% | Groningen 27%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 57%, Groningen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.44 PPG, Groningen 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.