Excelsior 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Excelsior at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Excelsior face Waalwijk.

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Fixture Analysis

Excelsior welcome Waalwijk to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 16 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Excelsior — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Excelsior have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Excelsior are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Waalwijk have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Waalwijk's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Excelsior) versus 0.80 (Waalwijk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Excelsior, 1 for Waalwijk and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Excelsior 2–2 Waalwijk — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Excelsior in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 56% versus Waalwijk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 66% | Waalwijk 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.46 xG and Waalwijk 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.892 / defence 1.185 | Waalwijk attack 0.629 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.390. Waalwijk's attack rating of 0.629 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Excelsior's last 59 games and Waalwijk's last 59.

Result probabilities: Excelsior 46% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 26%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.18 | Draw 3.51 | Waalwijk 3.90. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Excelsior 70% (last 10 home games) | Waalwijk 30% (last 10 away games).

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