Telstar 2-3 Emmen – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Telstar at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Emmen encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Emmen travel to 711 Stadion to take on Telstar in Eerste Divisie (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Telstar stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Telstar have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Emmen — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Emmen have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Telstar are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Telstar's games and 60% of Emmen's (from Telstar's last 10 home games and Emmen's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Telstar, 2 for Emmen and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Telstar 0–2 Emmen — a Emmen win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Telstar trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Emmen trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 51% versus Emmen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 49% | Emmen 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Telstar surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Emmen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 2.41 xG and Emmen 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.148 / defence 0.935 | Emmen attack 0.917 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.408. Emmen's defence rating of 1.297 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Telstar's projected output up. Data: built from Telstar's last 72 games and Emmen's last 34.

Result probabilities: Telstar 64% | Draw 19% | Emmen 17%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 1.57 | Draw 5.33 | Emmen 5.73. The model has a clear lean to Telstar (64%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.41 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Telstar at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Telstar's last 10 home games and Emmen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Telstar 80% (last 10 home games) | Emmen 60% (last 10 away games).

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