Dordrecht 3-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dordrecht (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Dordrecht face FC OSS.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and FC OSS meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 35). This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Dordrecht's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
FC OSS (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Dordrecht's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of FC OSS's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Dordrecht have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with FC OSS managing 0 and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2023, ended Dordrecht 1–0 FC OSS — a Dordrecht win.
The head-to-head data gives Dordrecht an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 57% versus FC OSS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 60% | FC OSS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.52 xG and FC OSS 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.005 / defence 0.710 | FC OSS attack 0.717 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.408. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Dordrecht have a tight defence (rating 0.710), which is pulling FC OSS's projected output down. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 72 games and FC OSS's last 72.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 56% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 17%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.78 | Draw 3.77 | FC OSS 5.77. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (56%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and FC OSS's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 40% (last 10 home games) | FC OSS 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 35 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 56% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Dordrecht 1.52 / FC OSS 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.005 / def 0.710 | FC OSS attack 0.717 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.72
FC OSS xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs FC OSS FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs FC OSS kick off?
Dordrecht vs FC OSS kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 19 April 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Dordrecht 3 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Dordrecht vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs FC OSS part of?
Dordrecht vs FC OSS is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 35) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 56% chance of winning, FC OSS a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dordrecht and FC OSS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Dordrecht vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.72x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 72 games and FC OSS's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
56%
1.78
27%
3.77
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.23
0.72
FC OSS xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
4%
26.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 11.6 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs FC OSS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Dordrecht and 0.72 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 26W 20D 26L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
FC OSS's form line: 20W 9D 43L from 72 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Dordrecht are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 36 home games (16W 10D 10L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 7W 6D 23L from their last 36 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.01 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
Dordrecht (Home) vs FC OSS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Dordrecht vs FC OSS Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 26W 20D 26L in their last 72 games (1.36 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 20W 9D 43L in their last 72 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or FC OSS away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.61 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Dordrecht and FC OSS, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won FC OSS 0-3 Dordrecht on 29 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dordrecht
3
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs FC OSS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC OSS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 5, FC OSS have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and FC OSS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: FC OSS 3-0 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and FC OSS?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 47%, FC OSS 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Dordrecht) and 53% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; FC OSS in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs FC OSS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and FC OSS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 42% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dordrecht and FC OSS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Dordrecht's matches and 53% of FC OSS's.
Do Dordrecht and FC OSS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 69% of FC OSS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat FC OSS 3-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.52 xG and FC OSS 0.72 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.00 / defence 0.71 against FC OSS attack 0.72 / defence 0.93, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 56% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 17%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, FC OSS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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