MVV 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Willem II at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Willem II encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

MVV host Willem II at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:45 UK time.

Form Guide

MVV — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, MVV have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — MVV are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Willem II stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Willem II's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Willem II — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, MVV have won 1, Willem II 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Sep 2023, ended MVV 1–2 Willem II — a Willem II win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

MVV in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Willem II in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 65% and Willem II 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 72% | Willem II 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: MVV surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Willem II have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.25 xG and Willem II 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.122 / defence 1.001 | Willem II attack 1.169 / defence 0.683. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.417. Willem II bring a tight defence (rating 0.683, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling MVV's projected output down. Data: built from MVV's last 72 games and Willem II's last 72.

Result probabilities: MVV 28% | Draw 26% | Willem II 46%. Fair-value odds: MVV 3.56 | Draw 3.92 | Willem II 2.16. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (MVV's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: MVV 40% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights