Roda 3-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host NAC Breda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Roda) versus 1.80 (NAC Breda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Roda have won 1, NAC Breda 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 56% and NAC Breda 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 52% | NAC Breda 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.58 xG and NAC Breda 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.140 / defence 0.825 | NAC Breda attack 1.240 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.337. NAC Breda have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Roda games / 68 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 42% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 32%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | NAC Breda 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | NAC Breda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 42% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Roda 1.58 / NAC Breda 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.140 / def 0.825 | NAC Breda attack 1.240 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Roda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.37
NAC Breda xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs NAC Breda kick off?
Roda vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 23 March 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs NAC Breda?
Roda 3 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Roda vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs NAC Breda part of?
Roda vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 42% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Roda and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and NAC Breda?
Record (5 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 2 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are Roda and NAC Breda in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.14x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
42%
2.41
26%
3.78
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Roda xG
Total xG
2.95
1.37
NAC Breda xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Roda and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Roda and 1.37 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda's recent record stands at 28W 17D 23L from 68 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 25L across 68 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.49 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Roda have managed 18W 7D 9L from 34 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 15W 5D 14L across 34 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.71 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 71%.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 28W 17D 23L in their last 68 games (1.49 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 31W 12D 25L in their last 68 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or NAC Breda away?
Roda's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.79 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and NAC Breda runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
NAC Breda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Roda
2
Draws
4
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, Roda have won 2, NAC Breda have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Roda 0-5 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Roda at 62%, NAC Breda at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Roda and 71% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Roda's games and 71% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Roda's matches and 71% of NAC Breda's.
Do Roda and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat NAC Breda 3-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.58 xG and NAC Breda 1.37 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.14 / defence 0.82 against NAC Breda attack 1.24 / defence 0.85, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 42% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 32%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 52%, NAC Breda 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.49 PPG, NAC Breda 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.